By Awel Uwihanganye
Since the turn of the millennium, China’s portfolio in Africa, hitherto negligible, has grown exponentially. In 2009, it overtook the United States as Africa’s single biggest trading partner, and today, China-Africa trade volumes are in excess of $200 billion dollars. But in the same period, China has also become Africa’s biggest creditor. Between 2000 and 2014, China extended over $95.5billion worth of commercial loans to African governments, and today, Chinese loans to Africa account for 14% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s total debt stock. As a result, Beijing has been accused of “predatory loan practices,” and Africa has been warned of a “new colonialism” from China.
But the numbers don’t tell the whole story. As a 2017 Mackinsey report discovered, the China-Africa economic relationship is more nuanced than that. The report found that there are over 10,000 Chinese companies involved in all sorts of economic activity across Africa – from energy, to real estate, retail trade, to manufacturing. More importantly around 90% of these are privately owned – suggesting that more than being a calculated, centrally sanctioned state offensive, Chinese economic activity in Africa could be market driven.
For example, for long, the limited structural transformation of African economies has been blamed on insufficient Infrastructure and access to electricity. Over 600 million Africans are estimated to not have access to electricity, and the African Development Bank has argued that Africa would need to invest about $93billion annually until 2020, to cure its current infrastructure deficit. And China is responding to this need. Over 40% of Chinese loans have gone to addressing Africa’s power needs, while 30% is helping revamp its infrastructure. In the last two decades, China has financed more than 3000 critical Infrastructure projects, more than the African Development Bank, World Bank, and the European Union combined. In 2017 alone, Chinese contracted projects in Africa were estimated to be worth a whopping $76.5billion.
Moreover, China’s preference for connective infrastructure – interior to coast railways and ports is opening up more communities and businesses to markets, and helping to reduce spatial inequality, a new study by the Brookings Institute shows. Take East Africa for example. The region has formed a center-piece of Xi’ Jinping’s Belt and Road project, and last year, Kenya launched the 290-mile railway from the capital Nairobi to the port city of Mombasa, financed by the Chinese. It is expected to be extended to Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan, connecting over 70 million landlocked people to the sea. Followed through, it will be the first bi-lateral infrastructure project of that magnitude, since the colonial-era Uganda railway constructed by the British in 1896!
Nairobi Southern Bypass funded through Concessionary Loan from the Government of China.
In Ethiopia, the Chinese have also financed and built its 470-mile electric railway connecting it to the port in neighboring Djibouti, while in Tanzania’s former slave town of Bagamoyo, the Chinese are poised to build a $10billion mega port expected to be the biggest on the continent, and a lucrative gateway to Tanzania and her neighbors.
These mega projects have been built at a huge cost of course, some of which will extend to generations of Africans. But they also present huge opportunities. 44 of Africa’s 54 countries in March this year signed the biggest Free trade agreement since the formation of the World Trade Organization, and as part of its Agenda 2063 commitments, Africa is committed to substantially increasing intra-African trade beyond the current 18%, and enabling Africans to travel more freely around the continent. These projects will be key to realizing that goal, by not only facilitating cross-border trade, but also encouraging production, as demand increases with access to bigger markets.
Even here, the relationship with China is critical. Contrary to popular criticism that suggests that Chinese companies barely employ Africans, the Mckinsey report discovered the opposite. 89% of employees in Chinese companies on the continent are African, while two thirds of Chinese employers provide some form of skills training, with half of them providing apprentice training where skilled labor is required. In the long term, China’s investments in Africa could bring about substantial skills transfer to Africa’s vast working age population, which is expected to be bigger than China’s and India’s by 2034. It is this skilled human resource that will power Africa’s quest for manufacturing and Industrialization.
Estimates project a bright future for manufacturing on the continent. Chinese investment is expected to continue growing, and if the construction boom continues, and Africa’s household consumption remains steadily growing at the current 3.8% per annum, Africa could double its manufacturing output to $930billion in 2025, from the current $500billion today. To realize that potential however, governments will have to support local manufacturers to respond to local demand, like in the construction sector where only 47% of construction inputs are currently being sourced from local firms.
Ultimately, it is that productive competitiveness that will reinvigorate African economies, generate jobs for its unemployed young people, and yield a meaningful partnership with China.
The writer is the founder and director of the Leo Africa Institute
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the area, despite the daunting presence of close by Rome.