Why East African countries are making a case for a bigger force in Somalia

In March 2007, Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya and Ethiopia sent soldiers into Somalia to form the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom). The forces are deployed in three components with the Military as the biggest. The component is mandated to conduct peace support operations in Somalia with the objectives of stabilizing the situation in the country, creating the necessary conditions for the conduct of humanitarian activities and eventually handing over to a United Nations Peacekeeping Operation.

Ugandan troops are deployed in Sector 1, which comprises the regions of Banadir, and Lower Shabelle.

Kenyan forces are responsible for Sector 2 comprising Lower and Middle Jubba. Sector 3 comprising Bay and Bakool as well as Gedo (Sub Sector 3) comes under Ethiopian command.

Djiboutian forces are in charge of Sector 4 which covers Hiiraan and Galgaduud while Burundian forces are in charge of Sector 5 which covers the Middle Shabelle region.

Since its inception the AMISOM has been instrumental in helping Somali National Security Forces push the Al Qaeda-affiliated terror group, Al-Shabaab, out of much of southern Somalia including most major towns and cities, and in so doing has created a relatively secure environment which has allowed the Somali peace process to take root. This has afforded the local population the opportunity to establish accountable local governance institutions that can begin to deliver services as well as rebuild the local economy and create linkages to the national economy and government.

The presence of the 22,000 strong Amisom force has seen Mogadishu transformed. The local economy is booming and the effects are far from confined to Mogadishu. Securing the capital allowed AMISOM to move into the second phase of its original concept of operations, deploying across the country and expanding the authority of the state.

Prior to the force taking position, the al-Shabab had fought successive governments in Mogadishu and also carried out attacks in Kenya and Uganda.

Uganda was the first to deploy troops under AMISOM into Somalia and since then the country has provided four AMISOM Force Commanders and maintains the largest contingent in AMISOM with more than 6,000 of the total troops deployed in Banadir (Mogadishu), Middle and Lower Shabelle regions.

Having suffered several defeats the al-Shabaab withdrew from the Somalia capital of Mogadishu, which allowed Amisom troops to embark on an expansion, liberating several urban centres and other towns in the southern parts of the country.

AMISOM’s original mandate was to protect the Somali transitional political institutions following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops that have been present in Somalia since the early 1990s. However, the transitional government has faced continued challenges in Southern Somalia which has been described by analysts as a mix of isolated government townships, rural clans, Al-Shabaab and relative power vacuums. The Federal Government of Somalia is also noted for favouritism, while the Somali National Army is divided by clan cleavages and deep political interests, all factors that have worked in the favour of the terrorist fighters who now keep advancing and weakening previously government held territories.

Amidst continued calls for reassessment of the presence or even relevance of the Amisom troops in Somalia after nearly 15 years, it remains critical to maintain a strong, internationally composed military force to protecting the Somali government and prevent the Al-Shabaab Islamist militant movement from completely taking over and causing a situation like that seen in August in Afghanistan when US forces withdrew, leaving the country to fall to the Taliban.

A recent report to the Security Council by a UN Panel of Experts points out that during the first half of 2021 the al-Shabaab encountered little resistance in capturing several towns and villages following the withdrawal of United States military and the partial drawdown of the African Union Mission in Somalia. This left Somali special forces struggling to contain Al-Shabaab and infiltration of Al-Shabaab in the capital Mogadishu has reached new heights according to the report. It further states that the city would fall relatively quickly if AMISOM was withdrawn. 

Besides this, there are continued calls by al-Shabaab leaders for their supporters to attack Americans in Africa, the world and back at home. These threats cannot be taken lightly considering the attacks on US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya that occurred in 1998, killing more than 200 people.

What is without doubt is that there is need for a military force to maintain the lead in peace keeping, supported by the Somali National Army. The different Amisom troop-contributing countries, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi and Djibouti all have different motivations for their continued participation in the peace keeping mission. That notwithstanding the common factor keeping them there is to keep the terrorists away from their home lands.

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni is a strong advocate against reducing the size of the Amisom force. He has argued before that the best way to keep al-Shabaab from carrying out attacks in neighbouring East Africa is by fighting them in Somalia and denying them permanent presence there.  Uganda is now advocating for a hybrid UN-AU force in Somalia.

Kenya on the other hand is planning to secure its borders from the inside as it considers a complete withdrawal of its troops from the Amisom. While Ethiopia, even in the face of the Tigray crisis, has maintained its presence in Amisom.